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june 15 2022 planning commission meeting

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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
III. Municipal Growth
The chapter presents alternative projections of household growth, estimates the number of
housing units that could be developed within Town under current zoning rules, updates the
Town’s Municipal Growth Area, adopts a forecast of household and population levels for the
year 2040, and assesses the potential impact of growth on key community facilities.
Zoned Development Capacity
Establishing a Baseline
New Housing Units: 2011-2020
A household is an occupied housing unit. It is the main
Year Units
“demand unit” considered when contemplating change
and its impacts on community facilities. With a reasonably
2011 26
accurate forecast of households, for example, a town can 2012 48
estimate future residential demand for water and 2013 38
2014 48
sewerage, classroom space in schools, and for parkland.
2015 53
2016 17
In 2010 the U.S. Census recorded 1,568 households in
2017 17
Centreville, and over the subsequent ten years the Town
2018 21
added 278 new housing units (see Table__). For preparing
2019 2
projections each of these new units is assumed to be 2020 8
occupied, therefore, the level of 1,846 households is the
278
2020 baseline.
The Development Pipeline
Centreville presently has no housing units in the development pipeline, which is to say there
are no unbuilt housing developments with final plan or plat approval. However, the Providence
Farm subdivision continues to build out with 12 lots remaining.
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Capacity for New Housing
The term “Zoned Development Capacity” refers to the acreage within the Town that is available
for development and the housing units which could be built on that land under current zoning
rules. In estimating the Town’s capacity for development, only “buildable land” is considered,
which refers to acreage that meets each of the following criteria:
• It is not encumbered by serious environmental constraints.
• It is undeveloped or clearly under-developed as evidenced for example by the presence
of only one building on a large tract of land.
• It has the zoning to permit residential development.
• It is mapped within either a current or planned water and sewerage service area.
• It is otherwise not actively in use.
It is not uncommon to find large parcels of residentially zoned land being used for religious,
institutional, or recreational purposes, including cemeteries, schools, and parks. Such parcels
are not counted when estimating development capacity.
Table __ shows the acreage and Residential Development Capacity by Zoning District
potential new housing units within
Max. Computed
each of the Town’s residential zoning
Density by Potential Density
districts. As shown, there is capacity Code Total Housing (units/gross
for 875 housing units1. The unit Zone (units/acre) Acreage Units acre)
counts are mostly distributed among
the R-1, R-3, and TND zones, with R-1 3.00 162 340 2.1
only 30 lots remaining in the R-2
R-2 5.00 8 30 3.6
zone.
R-3 - Turpin Farm 8.00 66 290 4.4
TND - Carter Farm 5.00 43 215 5.0
sum 279 875 3.1
1 It is important to note that Town zoning does allow housing units above commercial space, but a parcel-by-parcel evaluation of the
redevelopment potential of existing commercial buildings was not undertaken. It is possible that a limited number of apartments
would be developed in the Central Business District (CBD) through the renovation or adaptive reuse of existing buildings.
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Most of the residential development potential shown in Table ___ is found on five major tracts
of land. Exhibit ____ shows each tract, its current zoning district and potential yield of new
housing units. Each was as designated a major infill area in the 2009 Community Plan and
remains so today. It is estimated that there is potential for 810 dwelling units under current
zoning on these five major parcels alone.
The recognition of the development potential on each major tract is not an endorsement of any
development plan or an assurance that required public water and sewer allocation will be made
to support such potential, or even that the zoning will remain unchanged. A developer must
ultimately submit a plan for each tract for Town review and approval. In each case the actual
development of the tract may provide less than its theoretical potential. These five tracts,
comprising 253 acres, account for 94 percent of the estimated capacity for new housing units.
The other six percent is comprised of lots that are platted but vacant and several small tracts
which could be subdivided.
(Carter Farm) Major Residential Infill
Current Zoning:TND
BuildOutEstimate:215 Current Zoning:R-1 Parcels
BuildOutEstimate:70
4
3
(Turpin Farm)
Current Zoning:R-3 Total Potential Dwelling Units: 810
Current Zoning:R-1 BuildOutEstimate:290
BuildOutEstimate:130 1
5
Current Zoning:R-1
BuildOutEstimate:105
2
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Projections of Household Growth
Alternative Projections
Three alternative projections are shown in Table ___ and graphed in Exhibit ___. Each
represents a plausible future track for household growth through 2040, unconstrained by
limitations on the availability of public water and sewer or zoning restrictions. However, the
highest projection (Projection 2) serves mostly to bracket the upper limit potential for growth.
Given County land use policies that direct housing development into towns and the availability
of land in Centreville and its growth area, it would seem likely the Town’s share of the County’s
residential base will increase over time as it has since 2000.
• As noted in the Table, Projection #1 fixes the number of households in Centreville at its
2020 share of 9.9% for the next 20 years. Under this scenario the number of households
in Centreville would increase by about 444 between 2020 and 2040 at an average annual
rate of 1.08 percent.
• Under Projection #2 the Town would growth between 2020 and 2040 along the same
trend recorded between 2000 and 2020, which was a period of significant residential
growth in Centreville, particularly during the first decade of this period. Under this high
growth scenario, the number of households in Centreville would more than double (like
it did between 2000 and 2020), increasing by about 2. By 2040 the Town’s share of total
County households would approximate 18 percent.
• Under Projection #3, the Town would grow between 2020 and 2040 along the same
trend recorded between 2010 and 2020 a period of more modest growth. Under this
scenario, the number of households in Centreville would increase by about 714 at an
average annual rate of 1.65 percent. By 2040 the Town’s share of total County
households would approximate 11 percent.
Alternative Household Projections 2020 - 2040
Change 2020-2040
Projection Past Current Future
Ave Annual
% #
Rate
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
1. Fixed Share of County Households (at 9.9%) 807 1568 1846 2070 2290 24.0 444 1.08
2. Replicate Town's Growth Trend Between 2000 and 2020 807 1568 1846 3000 4220 128.6 2374 4.22
3. Replicate Town's Growth Trend Between 2010 and 2020 807 1568 1846 2200 2560 38.7 714 1.65
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Household Projections: 2020 -2040
4500
4000
3500
3000
Projection 2
2500
Projection 3
2000 Projection 1
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Forecast 2040
A reliable forecast allows a Town to anticipate and prepare for the impact of growth and the
needs of future residents. The forecast presented here is the expected outcome of the 2040
Community Plan. Considering this Plan’s polices especially related to land use, the Town based
its comprehensive plan on a forecast rate of growth of 1.65 percent per year on average
resulting in about 714 new household by 2040. At this level, Centreville’s population would
approximate 6,670 in 2040.
Impacts of Planned Growth
(The impact of the planned growth on community facilities (schools and public water and sewer
in particular… to be completed upon completion of land use element and the 2040 Forecast)
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Designated Growth Area
Size and Location
A designated growth area is a planned extension of the municipal boundaries to encompass
lands that may be annexed in the future. Under Maryland planning law, properties must be
within the growth area to be eligible for annexation. This Plan’s growth area contains about
1,940 acres and is shown on Map ___.
The Growth Area as drawn in the 2009 Community Plan encompassed about 1,720 acres, nearly
390 acres of which are environmentally sensitive and thus not available for development. The
2020 updated Growth Area is larger because it includes the roughly 220 areas previously
planned as a “County Businesses Park” located on the west side of U.S. Route 13 and MD Route
213. This plan includes the planned business park within the Town’s growth area signaling the
Town’s intention that such development occur within municipal limits. This is discussed in the
next section.
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preliminary working draft for planning commission review
Planned Land Use
The land use plan for the Growth area is shown in Map __ below and the recommended land
use designations are described here.
From Growth Area to Villages to
Neighborhoods
Recommended Employment Zones
P Existing Intuitional uses
S Planned Commercial / Mix
P
Residential Infill Areas
Planned
Complete Neighborhoods
New Streets
S P Planned Growth Area
Boundary
S
P Possible Employment
P Zone
Future School S
Future Park P
County Business Park
MD 304 Corridor
Greenbelt
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