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Municipal Growth
The chapter presents alternative projections of household growth, estimates the number of
housing units that could be developed within Town under current zoning rules, updates the
Town’s Municipal Growth Area, adopts a forecast of household and population levels for the year
2040, and assesses the potential impact of growth on key community facilities.
BACKGROUND
Establishing a Baseline
A household is an occupied housing unit. It is the main New Housing Units: 2011-2020
“demand unit” considered when contemplating change and its
Year Units
impacts on community facilities. With a reasonably accurate
forecast of households, for example, a town can estimate future
2011 26
residential demand for water and sewerage, classroom space in
2012 48
schools, and for parkland. 2013 38
2014 48
In 2010 the U.S. Census recorded 1,568 households in 2015 53
Centreville, and over the subsequent ten years the Town added 2016 17
278 new housing units (see Table__). For the purpose of 2017 17
2018 21
preparing projections, each of these new units is assumed to be
2019 2
occupied, therefore, the level of 1,846 households is the 2020
2020 8
baseline.
278
The Development Pipeline
Centreville presently has no housing units in the development pipeline, which is to say there are
no unbuilt housing developments with final plan or plat approval. However, the Providence Farm
subdivision continues to build out with 12 lots remaining.
Page 1 of 7

ZONED DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
The term “Zoned Development Capacity” refers to the acreage within the Town that is available
for development and the housing units which could be built on that land under current zoning
rules. In estimating the Town’s capacity for development, only “buildable land” is considered,
which refers to acreage that meets each of the following criteria:
• It is not encumbered by serious environmental constraints.
• It is undeveloped or clearly under-developed as evidenced for example by the presence
of only one building on a large tract of land.
• It has the zoning to permit residential development.
• It is mapped within either a current or planned water and sewerage service area.
• It is otherwise not actively in use.
It is not uncommon to find large parcels of residentially zoned land being used for religious,
institutional, or recreational purposes, including cemeteries, schools, and parks. Such parcels are
not counted when estimating development capacity. Table __ shows the acreage and potential
housing units within each of the Town’s residential zoning districts. As shown, there is capacity
for 1,177 housing units on 279 acres1. The unit counts are fairly evenly distributed among the R-1,
R-3, and TND zones, while there are only 32 lots remaining in the R-2 zone.
Residential Development Capacity by Zoning District: 2020
Max. Density by Total Potential Estimated
Code Available Housing Density
Zone (units/acre) Acreage Units (units/acre)
R-1 3.00 162 470 2.9
R-2 5.00 8 32 3.8
R-3 7.00 66 460 7.0
TND 5.00 43 215 5.0
sum 279 1177 4.2
Note: Maximum density by code is as provided in the Schedule of Zone Regulations for
Planned Unit Developments.
1 It is important to note that Town zoning does allow housing units above commercial space, but a parcel-by-parcel evaluation of the
redevelopment potential of existing commercial buildings was not undertaken. It is possible that a limited number of apartments
would be developed in downtown through the renovation or adaptive reuse of existing buildings.
Page 2 of 7

The vast majority of new residential development potential can be found on five major tracts of
land in Town. Map shows each tract and its zoning. Each was as designated a major infill area in
the 2010 Community Plan and remains so today. However, it needs to be noted that the
recognition of the development potential on each major tract is not an endorsement of any
development plan or an assurance that required public water and sewer allocation will be made
to support such potential, or even that the zoning will remain unchanged. A developer must
ultimately submit a subdivision plan for each tract for Town approval. In each case the actual
development of the tract may provide less than its theoretical potential. These five tracts,
comprising 253 acres, account for 94 percent of the capacity for new housing units. The other 6
percent are comprised of lots that are platted but vacant and small tracts which could be
subdivided.
Page 3 of 7

Projections of Household Growth
Four alternative projections are shown in Table ___ and graphed in Exhibit ___. Each represents
a plausible future track for household growth through 2040, unconstrained by limitations on the
availability of public water and sewer or zoning restrictions. However the highest and lowest
projections serve mostly to bracket the potential for growth; compared to the others they are
relatively unlikely.
As noted in the Table, Projection #1 fixes the number of households in Centreville at 9.9% of the
County’s households for the next 20 years. Given County land use policies that direct
development into towns and a few other growth centers and the availability of land in the Town,
it would seem more likely the Town’s share of the County’s residential base will increase over
time as it has since 2000. As for Projection #4, which is the highest projection, it seems unlikely
that Centreville will grow at 4.2 percent per year like it did between 2000 and 2010. It does seem
quite plausible however that the Town will add about the same number of households as it
added during those 20 years, which would bring the total to 2,885 by 2040. It is likely that actual
household growth would fall between Projections 2 and 3, that is – assuming water and sewer
services were readily available.
Projection Past Current Future Change 2020-2040
Ave Annual
% #
Rate
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
1. Fixed Share of County Households (at 9.9%) 807 1568 1846 1980 2320 25.7 474 1.15
2. Town's Growth Trend 2000 - 2010 807 1568 1846 2200 2560 38.7 714 1.65
3. Increasing Share of County Households to 14% by 2040 807 1568 1846 2600 3360 82.0 1514 3.04
4. Town's Growth Trend 2000 - 2020 807 1568 1846 3010 4220 128.6 2374 4.22
Page 4 of 7

Household Projections: 2020 -2040
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
FORECAST 2040
A reliable forecast allows a Town to anticipate and prepare for the impact of growth and the
needs of future residents. The forecast presented here is the expected outcome of the 2040
Comprehensive Plan. In light of this Plan’s polices especially related to land use, the Town based
its Comprehensive Plan on a forecast rate of growth of ____ percent per year resulting in __ new
household by 2040. At this level, Centreville’s population would approximate __ in 2040.
Here is an explanation:
(to be completed upon discussion of community facilities and land use element)
Page 5 of 7

DESIGNATED GROWTH AREA
A designated growth area is a planned extension of the municipal boundaries to encompass
lands that may be annexed in the future. Under Maryland planning law, properties must be
within the growth area to be eligible for annexation. This Plan’s growth area contains about
1,940 acres and is shown on Map ___.
The Growth Area as drawn in the 2009 Community Plan encompassed about 1,720 acres of
which near 390 acres were determined to be environmentally sensitive and thus not available for
land use development. The 2020 updated Growth Area is larger because it encompasses the
roughly 220 areas previously planned as a “County Businesses Park” located on the west side of
U.S. Route 13 and MD Route 213. This plan includes the planned business park within the
Town’s growth area signaling the Town’s intention that such development occur within
municipal limits. This is discussed in the next section.
Page 6 of 7

IMPACTS OF PLANNED GROWTH
(to be completed upon completion of land use element and the 2040 Forecast)
Page 7 of 7