august 19 2020 chapter 2 draft
Other August 19, 2020 · 7 page(s)
Draft Chapter 2 (Aug 19, 2020) describes Centreville’s location on Maryland’s upper Eastern Shore and summarizes demographic data: a sharp population and household increase from 2000–2010 (population estimated 4,815 in 2020; households 1,568 in 2010), shifts in age distribution (more under‑18 in 2010 but estimates show fewer children and a rising median by 2018), household composition and housing occupancy rates, and a labor‑force estimate from the 2013–2017 ACS (70.8% or 2,570 people age 16+).
Centrevillepopulation growth 2000-2010households 2010age distributionhousehold compositionhousing occupancyQueen Anne's County sharelabor force 2013-2017
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II. T P HE OPULATION OF C ENTREVILLE LOCATION The Town of Centreville is centrally located within Maryland’s upper eastern shore region, 55 miles south of Wilmington, Delaware and 35 east of Baltimore, Maryland along US Route 301. The region, composed of five mostly rural counties, is home to 243,245 people (4% of the State) and 123,400 jobs1. Centreville is the county seat of Queen Ann’s County. Insert Location Map 1 Population: 2019 estimate by U.S. Census, Maryland State Data Center. Jobs by place, MD State Data Center, 2020 projected. Page 1 of 7 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS Decade by decade, between 1960 and 2000, Centreville’s population remained within a narrow band changing only by plus 107 residents as shown below. But between 2000 and 2010 the population surged; growing at an unprecedent average annual rate of 8.1%, adding 2,315 residents and more than doubling in just 10 years2. The current 2020 population is estimated to be 4,815. Households, which are occupied housing units, increased rapidly too between 2000 and 2010, as would be expected. During the decade, 761 households were added to the Town bringing the total to 1,568. Households are the “demand units” for most municipal facilites and services. For example, the number of households is multiplied by the average water demand to estimate demand for municipal water. In the next chapter (Municipal Growth) as we look to what future conditions may bring, we will prepare projections using the number of households. For decades the Town’s share of Queen Anne’s County’s population and households fell, from a high of 12.4 percent in 1950 to a low of 4.9 percent by 2000 2 By comparison, over the full 60 years since 1960, the Town has grown at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. Page 2 of 7 368,1 358,1 810,2 790,2 079,1 582,4 518,4 POPULATION CENTREVILLE: 1960-2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 as shown in the chart below. This was the primarily the result of the County build- out of Kent Island combined with essentially no growth in Town (or in any of the County’s municipalities). But by 2010, the Town’s share of the County population had been restored to its 1960 level before dropping recently to about 10.5 percent. As of 2018, the latest year data are available, the population of all the towns in the County, made up only 14.2 percent of the County’s population3. 12.2% 11.2% 11.2% 10.1% 10.5% 7.9% 6.2% 4.9% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Insert photo 3 This is in stark contrast to the other counties in the Upper Eastern Shore region: 29% of Cecil County’s 2018 population is municipal; 36.3% in Caroline County; 40.2 % in Kent County, and 52.0% in Talbot County, per MD Department of Planning , State Data Center and Source U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, May 2019. Page 3 of 7 AGE Between 2000 and 2010, the share of the “Median”: The term describes the Town’s population under 18 years of age mathematical value that is positioned in increased five percentage points to 27%, while an ordered list of values such that there the share of residents 65 years and older is an equal number of values above and decreased from 22% to 18%. Household below it. The median value is used because it eliminates the distorting growth during that decade accounted for a effects of extreme values in any given younger population and the median age data set, as when for instance a small dropped from 41.3 to 39.54. number of very high-income households can lift the average. Age Distribution : 2000 As an example: in the data set below, the Under 18 22% median is 4 and the average is 5.8. Note how the last number in the set lifts the Everyone Else 56% 65 + Older value of the average. The median allows 22% for a better picture when comparing values like income over time and between places. Age Distribution: 2010 4 1,3, ,5,14 Under 18 27% Everyone Else 55% 65 + Older 18% Recent statistical analyses by the U.S. Age Distribution: Estimated 2018 Census Bureau however suggests some Under 18 reversal since 2010; the median age may 20% have risen to 44.3 years. Those under 18 are Everyone Else 65 + Older 59% 21% estimated now to comprise only 20 percent of the Town’s population. The Town’s recent very slow pace of household formation may account for this change as younger families have aged without the offsetting effects of new households with children. Indeed, 2018 estimates suggest there are 260 fewer children now than in 2010. The new 2020 Census will provide a more reliable data set based on direct survey methods, but it is clear the Town’s population is not becoming more youthful like it had been in the previous decade. 4 The median age in 2010 in Queen Anne’s County was 42.6. Page 4 of 7 HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE AND FAMILIES Like population, the number of households and age, the makeup of households is an important indication of community character. Data on household structure are available only from the decennial census, so we note here that the data below are 10 years old. Composition of Housholds: 2010 # with % of Total Type of Household # Children Households Family Households Married Couple Families 872 413 55.6% Male Householder, no wife 52 36 3.3% Female Householder, no husband 178 104 11.4% Subtotal 1102 553 70.3% Non-family Households Householder Unrelated to Occupants 72 4.6% Householder Living Alone 394 25.1% Subtotal 466 29.7% Total Households 1568 100.0% As shown above in 2010, 1,102 households, or about 70% of all households, were families--that is, the occupants were related to the householder by birth, marriage or adoption. About 30% then were non-families, unrelated people living together or one-person households. By comparison, in 2000, there were 497 family households, making up 61.2% of the total. Householders living alone (one-person households) made up nearly 25% (or one in four) of all households in 2010. By comparison in 2000 there were 265 one- person households, making up 32.8% of all households. In Queen Anne’s County (not shown in the table above) family households made up 73.9% of households and one-person households make up 20.6%. Page 5 of 7 Other relevant findings from the 2010 Census about Centreville’s households: • 38% of households had children. • 30% of households had a person over 65 years of age. • Average family size was 3.1 persons per family. • Average household size was 2.6 persons per household. • Owner-occupied housing units made up 69% of all units with an average household size of 2.71. • Renter occupied units made up 23.6% of all units with an average household size of 2.26. • Vacant units made up 7.4% of all units. ECONOMIC CHARACTER AND INDICATORS LABOR FORCE The U.S. Census, American Community Survey (ACS) provides current information on the economic character of Centreville5. The data presented here reflects the ACS’s aggregation of the years 2013 through 2017. Of the Town’s population that is 16-years of age and older, 70.8% or 2,570 people are in the labor force, meaning they are employed or temporarily unemployed. Insert chart 5 The U.S. Census, American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing accounting of certain demographic and economic data. Because the data are arrived at through statistical methods rather than just direct counts, the Census publishes a percent margin of error for almost every data point. Obviously, where sample sizes are smaller, such as at the town-level, the probability of error is increased. The data used here all have margins of error less than 5% (except where noted or for household income data, where we’ve included the margin of error in dollar amounts). Comparative conclusions made here are made only after considering the margins of error associated with the data points being compared. Data with margins of error greater than 5% are not presented used. The advantage of using the ACS is that the data are more current, and the methods used span multiple years of study which can smooth out year to year deviations. Page 6 of 7 HOUSEHOLD INCOME The median household income in Centreville is $________ (+/- $____), compared with the County ($_______ (+/-$ 4,003). Include comparison to County and State LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT Describe location of jobs (within/out of jurisdiction) and explain community patterns Page 7 of 7